Srinagar, Dec 26: Deep beneath the Tibetan Plateau, the Indian continent is tearing in slow motion, an invisible rupture that may quietly rewrite Kashmir’s earthquake risks.
A new scientific study links deep tectonic tearing under Tibet with rising seismic stress across the Himalayas, as India upgrades J&K from Seismic Zone V to the newly created, highest-risk Zone VI, signalling stronger shaking, higher damage potential, and a more precarious geological reality for the region.
A groundbreaking scientific study published earlier this year in a reputed international journal has revealed that the Indian tectonic plate is “tearing apart” deep beneath the Tibetan Plateau.
The process could influence earthquake patterns across the Himalayan region, including pushing J&K’s earthquake risk further up.
The study is titled ‘The Indian Plate subducting below the Tibet Plateau is tearing apart,’ and is authored by Lin Liu, Danian Shi, and Simon L Klemperer.
It was published in the journal Communications Earth and Environment, a Springer Nature publication, on August 2, 2025.
It states that the “tear” is located in the eastern Himalayas.
Experts caution that this newly identified tear in the tectonic plate underscores the vulnerabilities in this seismically-active zone.
The key findings indicate an “orogen-perpendicular tearing” of the Indian plate along a north-south boundary at approximately 90-92°E longitude; West of 90°E, the Indian lithosphere underplates the Tibetan crust intact, extending about 100 km north of the Yarlung-Zangbo suture.
The orogen-perpendicular tearing is a tectonic process where the Indian Plate, while subducting beneath the Tibetan Plateau, splits along the north-south boundary and perpendicular to the mountain range.
This causes the lithosphere mantle to delaminate and sink into the mantle, while the crust remains intact.
In J&K, located west of the tear (around 74-77°E), the under-plating process described in the study exacerbates concerns of high-intensity earthquakes.
J&K fell predominantly under Seismic Zone V, the highest risk category in India’s earlier seismic zoning map.
The updated 2025 (released in November 2025) National Seismic Hazard Map by the Bureau of Indian Standards has elevated the entire Himalayan arc, including J&K, to the newly-created Zone VI.
This is reflective of J&K’s and the entire Himalayan range’s extreme tectonic vulnerability due to the ongoing collision of the Indian and Eurasian plates.
The new zone classification indicates a peak ground acceleration (PGA) potentially exceeding 0.36g.
PGA is the maximum acceleration experienced by the ground during an earthquake, measured in gravitational acceleration (g).
It is the key indicator of seismic hazard assessment and a predictor of structural damage.
PGA values up to 0.5g or higher have also been calculated for the region, as identified in a 2025 Frontiers study on Himalayan tunnels.
This translates into a significant risk of magnitude 8.0 or more earthquakes.
Active faults like the Main Himalayan Thrust and Main Boundary Thrust, together with the peculiar terrain of the area and glacial instability, add to the hazard risk.
The 2005 magnitude 7.6 earthquake devastated parts of the region, killing thousands and exposing vulnerabilities in infrastructure.
“This contrast in lithosphere structures at 90-92°E… suggests the subducting Indian plate is torn along the convergence direction,” the authors of the fresh study on plate collisions cited earlier state in the paper.
The process unfolds over geological timescales, millions of years, and does not imply an imminent surface-level division of the Indian subcontinent, contrary to sensational claims over the internet.
This gap lies in the eastern Himalayas, near the India-Bhutan border.
However, the tear’s role in segmenting the crust could redistribute stress along the entire Himalayan arc.